Executive Summary

Vital Energy reported Q3 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.52 and revenue of $420.8M; results missed S&P Global consensus on EPS ($1.63*) and revenue ($455.5M*) amid lower realized commodity prices, while GAAP EPS was $(9.35) due to a $420.0M non-cash impairment . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Production exceeded the top end of guidance at 136.2 Mboe/d (60.2 Mbopd); Consolidated EBITDAX was $308.5M; adjusted free cash flow was $5.5M; and net debt fell by $24.5M in the quarter .
Management withdrew all prior guidance and will not provide new guidance before closing the pending merger with Crescent Energy; a shareholder vote is expected Dec 12, 2025, and no Q3 earnings call was held due to the transaction .
Key narrative drivers: operational execution (26 wells TIL; 12-well “horseshoe” package), cost focus (LOE and G&A control), and merger timeline; offsets include lower average realized prices and elevated per-BOE gas gathering expense year over year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Exceeded the top end of total production guidance; produced 136.2 Mboe/d and 60.2 Mbopd; turned in line 26 wells and began flowback of a 12-horseshoe-well package in mid-October .
- Cash generation and liquidity actions: cash from operations $286.6M; Consolidated EBITDAX $308.5M; adjusted FCF $5.5M; net debt down $24.5M sequentially .
- Management tone on execution and cost discipline: “We delivered on an ambitious development plan… and exceeded the top-end of our total production guidance” — Jason Pigott, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Topline and profit metrics under pressure versus consensus: revenue ($420.8M vs $455.5M*) and adjusted EPS ($1.52 vs $1.63*) missed; EBITDA also modestly below Street ($293.5M* vs $303.0M*) as commodity realizations declined year over year (oil $66.32/bbl vs $76.51/bbl) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Non-cash impairment: $420.0M pre-tax impairment on oil and gas properties drove a GAAP net loss of $353.5M (GAAP diluted EPS $(9.35)) .
- Per-BOE operating costs mixed vs. prior year: LOE/BOE rose to $9.12 (from $8.78), and gas gathering/processing/transport per BOE rose to $0.54 (from $0.38) YoY, partially offset by lower production taxes/BOE ($1.64 vs $2.22) .

Financial Results

Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($M)	455.5*	420.8	-34.7
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	1.63*	1.52	-0.11
EBITDA ($M)	303.0*	293.5*	-9.5

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	511.4*	427.3*	419.6*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	-0.50*	-15.43*	-9.35
EBITDA ($M)	378.2*	322.4*	293.5*
EBITDA Margin (%)	73.84%*	75.05%*	69.74%*
Net Income Margin (%)	-3.68%*	-135.60%*	-84.01%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Year-over-Year Operating Drivers (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	459.2	420.8
Sales Volumes (Mboe)	12,267	12,527
Avg Daily Volumes (Mboe/d)	133.3	136.2
Oil price ($/bbl, ex-hedge)	76.51	66.32
NGL price ($/bbl, ex-hedge)	12.08	11.93
Gas price ($/Mcf, ex-hedge)	-0.48	0.45
Avg price ($/boe, ex-hedge)	36.58	33.50
LOE ($/boe)	8.78	9.12
Prod & Ad Val Tax ($/boe)	2.22	1.64
Gas G&P&T ($/boe)	0.38	0.54

Q3 2025 KPIs

KPI	Q3 2025
Production (Mboe/d)	136.2
Oil (Mbopd)	60.2
Cash from Operations ($M)	286.6
Consolidated EBITDAX ($M)	308.5
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)	5.5
Capex ($M, excl. non-budgeted acquisitions)	257.5
LOE ($M)	114.3
Total G&A ($M)	25.0 (incl. $6.9M transaction expense)
Wells Turned In Line	26
Net Debt ($B)	2.291 as of 9/30/25

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
All prior 2025 guidance (production, capex, costs, etc.)	FY 2025	Provided in earlier 2025 releases	Withdrawn; “prior guidance should no longer be relied upon”	Withdrawn
Forward guidance pre-close	Q4 2025 and beyond	n/a	No guidance will be provided prior to closing of Crescent transaction	Not provided
Merger timeline	4Q25	n/a	Special meeting to vote on Transaction expected Dec 12, 2025	New event/timeline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: The company did not host a Q3 2025 call due to the pending merger . Prior-quarter themes shown for continuity.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2/Q1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Cost optimization (LOE/G&A)	Q2: Sustainable cost reductions; LOE run-rate < $111M/quarter; ~20% G&A reduction vs prior run-rate	LOE $114.3M; total G&A $25.0M (incl. $6.9M transaction costs)	Continued cost focus; transaction costs temporarily elevate G&A
Development execution	Q2: Larger multi-well packages; extended laterals; horseshoe/J-hook designs to lower breakevens	26 wells TIL; 12-horseshoe-well package flowback began mid-Oct; production beat top-end guidance	Scaling larger packages; execution on plan
Hedging & leverage	Q2: ~95% 2H25 oil hedged at ~$69/bbl; plan to reduce net debt through 2H25	Net debt reduced by $24.5M; no updated hedge disclosure in Q3 PR	Debt reduction ongoing; hedge detail unchanged in PR
Commodity realizations	Q2: Noted weather/curtailments; efficiency gains; no specific price figures in call	Oil price $66.32/bbl vs $76.51 YoY; average $/boe fell to $33.50	Price headwinds vs prior year
Corporate actions	Q2: none	Pending merger with Crescent; SEC review delay due to U.S. gov’t shutdown; shareholder vote expected 12/12/25	Transaction nearing vote; no call/guidance

Management Commentary

“Our third-quarter results reflect our focus on operational execution and cost discipline… turning-in-line 26 wells… completing the 8-mile package of 12 horseshoe wells… and exceeding the top-end of our total production guidance.” — Jason Pigott, President & CEO .
On guidance: “Due to the Transaction, the Company’s prior guidance should no longer be relied upon… [we] will not be providing guidance at this time and do not expect to do so prior to the closing.” .
Merger timing: The company “expects to hold a special meeting… on December 12, 2025 to vote on the Transaction” with Crescent .

Q&A Highlights

No Q3 2025 earnings call or Q&A due to pending merger .
Prior quarter (Q2) themes referenced by analysts:
- Production trajectory into 2026 and capital efficiency carryover; management emphasized extended laterals, larger pad developments, and contract repricing opportunities .
- Hedging/FCF and leverage path into 2026; CFO noted continued debt reduction expected and a hedging approach targeting ~75% a year out .
- Non-core asset sales cadence supporting deleveraging; management views monetizations as opportunistic to accelerate debt reduction .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 versus S&P Global consensus: revenue $420.8M vs $455.5M*; adjusted diluted EPS $1.52 vs $1.63*; EBITDA $293.5M* vs $303.0M*; 12 EPS estimates and 5 revenue estimates contributed to consensus. Likely shortfall drivers include lower realized oil prices YoY ($66.32/bbl vs $76.51/bbl) and higher gas gathering costs per BOE YoY ($0.54 vs $0.38), partly offset by production above guidance . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Impairment ($420.0M pre-tax) drove GAAP loss but is excluded from adjusted metrics used for consensus comparisons .
Near-term estimate revisions: Street may trim near-term revenue/EBITDA on lower realized pricing and per-BOE costs, while incorporating higher volumes and execution efficiencies; guidance withdrawal and merger timeline likely shift focus to pro forma outlook rather than standalone 4Q25 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Operational beat on volumes with strong execution (26 TILs; 12-well horseshoe package), but headline financials missed consensus on revenue, adjusted EPS, and EBITDA as realized prices fell YoY . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
GAAP loss was driven by a non-cash $420.0M impairment; cash engine remained intact (CFO $286.6M; EBITDAX $308.5M; positive adjusted FCF) .
Cost work continues (LOE/G&A control), though Q3 included $6.9M of transaction costs; per-BOE gas gathering cost was higher YoY, warranting monitoring into Q4 .
Balance sheet improved modestly (net debt -$24.5M QoQ), consistent with the deleveraging posture communicated on the prior call .
No guidance and no Q3 call due to the pending Crescent merger; the near-term stock catalyst is the Dec 12 shareholder vote and subsequent deal timeline clarity .
For trading: the combination of production outperformance with estimate misses and guidance withdrawal suggests event-driven positioning around the merger vote will dominate; fundamental updates may be limited pre-close . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Appendix: Detailed Financials (from Q3 2025 press release)

Revenue detail: Oil $367.5M; NGL $42.9M; Gas $9.2M; Other $1.2M; total $420.8M .
Costs: LOE $114.3M; DD&A $180.5M; G&A $25.0M; Production taxes $20.5M; Gas G&P&T $6.8M .
Net loss $(353.5)M; GAAP diluted EPS $(9.35); adjusted net income $57.6M and adjusted diluted EPS $1.52 .

Footnote: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Vital Energy, Inc. (VTLE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary